The Obama/Biden Ticket...to Defeat

Early this morning Sen. Barack Obama announced via mass email/text message that his Vice Presidential candidate would be Sen. Joe Biden (D - Del) Suffice to say that reaction to this choice has varied from laughable to applauded, although any pick at this stage in the race would have been welcomed the same way. Of course the GOP is going to ridicule the pick (in this case as well they should) and the main-line Democrats are going to say that ____ is 'just what Obama needs.' Turned out the blank is Joe Biden.

By now, 12-14 hours after the announcement and three hours since their first joint appearance, many people know a brief background of Joe Biden. His story does have peaks and valleys; his dedication to his family and remembrance of the tragic accident with his late wife is admirable and touching. But the facts are clear. Obama is barely treading water at this point so he needed a lifeline. The polls in the last two weeks have shifted, and remove the predictable DNC Convention bounce, nothing was going to swing the polls back in his favor. Is Biden the right choice, is he that lifeline? Arguable, but no. The 'candidate for change' tags the 'ultimate insider' for his running mate? If you're keeping count, Obama has now reversed himself on accepting public funding, town hall meetings against John McCain, his 'end the war immediately no matter what' stance on the war in Iraq, and now, after railing against politics as usual and lobbyists for the last year and a half, has welcomed with open arms a man who has taken over $5 million in lobbying contributions since 2003, who's son is a lobbyist for one of the larger DC firms, and has been in elected office longer than John McCain! Not to mention is less than a decade younger than John McCain. A man who called Obama 'articulate and clean,' who was quoted as unabashedly stating Obama is not ready to be President, that the presidency is not the place for 'on the job training.' With all these negatives, what on earth are in the closets of Kaine, Bayh, Edwards (Chet) and the rest of the short-list?!

Pro-Obama supporters are gritting their teeth right now, as well they should. They've just been saddled with a man who does nothing to shift the ticket views to the center, but more importantly, a man who doesn't believe in the candidate of his own party. Biden's previous quotes about Obama have stacked the odds in Republican's favor for the next month. He'll say the right things now, be a good candidate and stay on message (unrelated note, John McCain at which of his seven tables? Really? That isn't opp research or a message, it's just dumb) But don't think for one minute that the loquacious Joe Biden isn't going home every night thinking, it should be me, not him.

Yes, Biden does bring a national security presence to the ticket...but pit Joe Biden against John McCain on national security? No contest. Yes it shores Obama's central weakness, but John Kerry in 2004, who has an even better national security resume than Joe Biden couldn't sway national security voters as a presidential candidate, so will a VP candidate? Unlikely. Also it's being said that Joe Biden will appeal to blue-collar workers, where Obama was thumped repeatedly by HRC in the primaries. Could turn out to be true, but the constituents of Delaware are not exactly Steel Belt/Corn Belt voters so who knows how well he'll appeal. Regardless, Obama did what he needed to do, shore up his weaknesses on the ticket. But that's the problem at it's foundation: Obama has so many weaknesses, any candidate he offered a VP slot to would do the exact same thing.

The ball is in John McCain's court. The right decision next week would turn this race into a victory lap for the rest of the fall. While the GOP bench is nowhere near as deep as Obama had to choose from, McCain's weaknesses are far fewer than Obama's. McCain doesn't have holes in his resume to fill, which puts him in the enviable position of nominating whomever could give him the best chance to win, something Obama was unable to do (if he would have been able, the 'Dream Ticket' would be a reality) My personal take? McCain/Pawlenty is the ticket.